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« Previous EntriesGold, oil, stocks, Democrats and 2009
Written by Michael Vass
Last year I was looking at the gold markets and speculated that gold would surge along with several of the gold stocks. On December 6, 2007 I rebuffed the claims of Goldman Sachs when they stated to sell gold. At the time the spot price was $855.
In January of 2008 I pointed [...]
Gold Stocks, US Dollar, and Crude Oil Charts
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The above chart is a weekly chart of the XAU gold stocks index. I have said in several previous posts that gold stocks needed to hold the support area outlined above for me to remain bullish on the sector.
During this past week, it appeared that the gold bulls had capitulated, [...]
Manipulation in the Silver Market
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
Another topic I wanted to bring up was silver and the notion that there is a manipulation in the futures market. I have read and listened to many experts, such as Bill Murphy, who have always stated that the gold and silver markets are manipulated. I felt that this could [...]
Gold, Euro, Natural Gas Analysis
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The above chart is a weekly chart of GDX. Despite another round of declining prices, gold stocks are still holing this important support area. In my opinion, this level of support is key, and if it is taken out, I will have a difficult time remaining bullish on the sector.
On [...]
Gold, Euro, Natural Gas Analysis
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The above chart is a weekly chart of GDX. Despite another round of declining prices, gold stocks are still holing this important support area. In my opinion, this level of support is key, and if it is taken out, I will have a difficult time remaining bullish on the sector.
On [...]
Month End Gold and Euro Review
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The above chart is a monthly chart of the XAU gold and silver stocks index. This is the same chart I had posted two weeks ago. Since this is a monthly chart, the candle to the extreme right of the chart has now formed, and a new candle will begin [...]
Jesse Livermore on the Importance of Trends
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The following is a quotation from the novel Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, written in 1923 by Edwin Lefevre. This quotation helped reinforce in my mind the importance trading in the direction of the primary move, and to avoid the noise of short-term fluctuations.
His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed [...]
Moving Averages and Trend Following
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
In the previous two posts, I mentioned that the short term trend for gold was down, and because of this fact, I was holding a short position. The following daily Renko chart illustrates how I define what the short-term trend is:
The above chart shows how I traded gold this summer. [...]
The Bubble is Bursting
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
For this past week, commodities corrected quite dramatically, which, I am sure, has left many commodity bulls feeling somewhat nervous. If this is the case, I hope that this post will help assuage any doubts.
The first chart is that of the XAU. It is a monthly chart that goes back [...]
Trading Stocks Without Predicting the Future
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
A few weeks ago, Stockcharts.com introduced Renko charts, and, since that time, I have really developed an appreciation for this charting style. Renko charts, like candle charts, are a Japanese charting style. Renko charts differ in that they do not factor in the passage of time, and, thus, only use [...]
The Wisdom of Peter Schiff
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
With the last video I posted on this site, I recommended a weekly webcast called the Financial Sense News Hour. One of the advantages of listening to this program is that one can become exposed to the ideas of many different guest speakers.
Peter Schiff is a regular contributor to this [...]
Trading Gold Corp’s Relative Strength
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
In the previous post, I mentioned the importance of managing risk by hedging. I also talked about how profitable traders tend to buy strength and short sell weakness. One way of following both principles is to buy a company that is showing strong relative strength, and short sell the index.
The [...]
Reducing Risk by Using Hedges
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
One trait common amongst all successful traders is the ability to manage risk. Experienced traders ask not how much money a trade can potentially make, but how much money a trade could potentially lose. Put another way, not losing money is more important than making money.
When I first started trading, [...]
Interview with Oil Expert Matt Simmons
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
I feel that when someone works hard, does research, and makes a bold forecast that eventually comes to fruition several years later, that person should be given credit. Along with Richard Heinberg, who I mentioned last time, Matt Simmons is one such person.
Matt Simmons, who spent his entire career working [...]
Trend Following Using Renko Charts
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
Over the past year on this site, I have attempted to use technical analysis and intermarket analysis to help better understand the gold market. During this time I think I have made some fairly decent calls, but have also made mistakes along the way. One of the advantages of maintaining [...]
Horizon ETF Math
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
As I have mentioned before on this site, Horizon ETFs are a type of investment that allow traders to go long or short a particular market with 200% daily exposure. For example, this organization has two ETFs that track natural gas:
HNU-which stands for Horizon Natural gas Up
HND-which stands for Horizon [...]
Gold Stocks, Silver, Copper, and the Dow
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
Above is a weekly chart showing GDX, the gold stocks ETF. What I wanted to point out is that gold stocks experienced a very nice bounce off a major area of support. I now feel that the short term trend for gold stocks has moved from neutral to up, so [...]
Gold Stocks, Silver, Copper, and the Dow
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
Above is a weekly chart showing GDX, the gold stocks ETF. What I wanted to point out is that gold stocks experienced a very nice bounce off a major area of support. I now feel that the short term trend for gold stocks has moved from neutral to up, so [...]
Real Versus Nominal Stock Market Returns
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
Because the price of gold seems to be going through what is known as the summer doldrums, which is basically a period where there is no trend and a time where it can be more difficult to make profitable trades, I have decided to focus this post on another topic [...]
The US Dollar, Agriculture Charts, and New ETFs
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The above chart is a daily chart of the US Dollar Index. As you can see, the Dollar recently broke out of a bullish triangle formation and is now trending up. This fact has put downward pressure on both gold and silver, and I think there is a good chance [...]
The Carry Trade, The TSX, and Oil Stocks
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
If yesterday’s market activity could not compel me to write for this blog, then I don’t think anything would. Besides the obvious headlines you have probably already read regarding Crude Oil and the Dow Jones, there are many other interesting developments that I feel are going on behind the scenes [...]
The Yen, Vix, and the Gold/Oil Ratio
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The Yen, Vix, and the Gold/Oil Ratio
I thought it would be a good idea to a have a mid-vacation update. Here are five charts that I found interesting this week:
1)2)
3)
4)5)
Please click on the charts in order to read the annotations. Thanks for looking, and have a profitable week.
Rating 3.00 out [...]
Monthly, Weekly and Daily Gold Charts
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
For this past week, the price of gold lost about $32.00 an ounce, and gold stocks, as measured by the XAU lost another 4% for the week. When gold goes through these normal corrections, I usually refer to the monthly charts, so that I do not lose sight of the [...]
Analysis of the US Dollar and Gold Stocks
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
Gold dropped about $26.00 dollars an ounce this week, and gold stock fared even worse, with the XAU losing 6.6% for the week. In the previous post I wrote on Tuesday, I said that an explosive move was likely due. Hopefully, from what I have been writing recently, you were [...]
A Brief Look at Bollinger Bands
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog
The following chart shows a gold index called the Dow Jones United States Precious Metals index, (DJUSPM). The index has a different gold stocks composition than the HUI or XAU Indices, and, as such, can sometimes give you a different perspective.
The main point in the above chart is that this [...]
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